Punishing: Gray Raven Event Limited Pity Calculator: Odds, Pity Thresholds and Guarantee

Hard pity: 60
Soft pity: None
Base rate: 0.5%
Cost per pull: 250 Black Cards
Rate-up guarantee: 75/25 with carry-over

This Punishing: Gray Raven pity calculator turns your pity counter into a real percentage. The Event Limited banner guarantees a top-rarity drop by pull 60, with a flat 0.5% rate on every pull until the guarantee. When a top-rarity drop lands it is the featured item 75% of the time; if it is not, the next top-rarity drop on this banner is locked to the rate-up. Starting from zero pity, 10 pulls give you a 4.9% chance and you need about 60 pulls for a coin-flip 50%. Set your current pity and the pulls you have saved to see your own number.

Pity calculator for:

Pity you have right now

0Soft pity: 60Hard pity: 60

Pulls you can spend10

= 2,500 Black Cards

Will you have enough by the next banner?

Type what you have, what you earn per week and when the banner ends. The planner turns it into pulls and into your real chance that day.

Currency you have now (Black Cards)

Currency you earn per week

Banner ends on

Pity you have now

0 weeks to go

Pulls you will have

Chance of the featured drop

Pulls needed for 90%

How the Punishing: Gray Raven Event Limited pity system works

Counter. Every pull without a top-rarity drop adds 1 to your pity. The counter resets to 0 the moment you get one — it does not reset when the banner rotates.
Flat rate. Punishing: Gray Raven keeps the rate at 0.5% on every pull of this banner; nothing ramps up before the cap, so only the hard guarantee changes your odds.
Hard pity (60). If you reach pull 60 without a drop, that pull is forced to be top rarity. From zero that costs 15,000 Black Cards.
Featured guarantee. When a top-rarity drop lands it is the featured item 75% of the time; if it is not, the next top-rarity drop on this banner is locked to the rate-up. Worst case for the rate-up unit is therefore 120 pulls (30,000 Black Cards).

How many pulls and Black Cards you need in Punishing: Gray Raven

Target	Pulls	Black Cards
10 pulls (one multi)	10	2,500
50% chance of a top-rarity drop	60	15,000
90% chance of a top-rarity drop	60	15,000
Hard pity (60) from zero	60	15,000
Featured unit — typical case	≈65	≈16,250
Featured unit — worst case	120	30,000

Chance of a top-rarity drop by number of pulls in Punishing: Gray Raven

Pulls from zero pity	Cumulative chance	Black Cards
10	4.9%	2,500
20	9.5%	5,000
30	14%	7,500
40	18%	10,000
50	22%	12,500
60Hard pity	100%	15,000

Computed from the Event Limited banner's exact rate table: 0.5% base rate, hard pity at 60. Every row assumes you start at pity 0; type your real pity in the calculator to shift the curve.

How many pulls do you need in Punishing: Gray Raven? →Punishing →How to get Black Cards in Punishing: Gray Raven →