Path to Nowhere Standard Pity Calculator: Odds, Pity Thresholds and Guarantee

Hard pity: 80
Soft pity: 50
Base rate: 2.0%
Cost per pull: 160 Arrest Warrants
Rate-up guarantee: Shared pool

This Path to Nowhere pity calculator turns your pity counter into a real percentage. The Standard banner guarantees a top-rarity drop by pull 80, with soft pity from pull 50 (the rate climbs from 2.0% to 8.0% on that pull and keeps rising). The guaranteed drop comes from the whole top-rarity pool, so it is not necessarily the featured unit. Starting from zero pity, 10 pulls give you a 18% chance and you need about 35 pulls for a coin-flip 50%. Set your current pity and the pulls you have saved to see your own number.

Pity calculator for:

Pity you have right now

0Soft pity: 50Hard pity: 80

Pulls you can spend10

= 1,600 Arrest Warrants

Will you have enough by the next banner?

Type what you have, what you earn per week and when the banner ends. The planner turns it into pulls and into your real chance that day.

Currency you have now (Arrest Warrants)

Currency you earn per week

Banner ends on

Pity you have now

0 weeks to go

Pulls you will have

Chance of the featured drop

Pulls needed for 90%

How the Path to Nowhere Standard pity system works

Counter. Every pull without a top-rarity drop adds 1 to your pity. The counter resets to 0 the moment you get one — it does not reset when the banner rotates.
Soft pity zone (pull 50 → 80). From pull 50 the per-pull rate jumps to about 8.0% and grows on each following pull. Most top-rarity drops in Path to Nowhere land inside this window, which is why the average is far below the hard cap.
Hard pity (80). If you reach pull 80 without a drop, that pull is forced to be top rarity. From zero that costs 12,800 Arrest Warrants.
Pool guarantee. The forced drop is any top-rarity unit from the current pool. Budget for more than 80 pulls if you want one specific unit.

How many pulls and Arrest Warrants you need in Path to Nowhere

Target	Pulls	Arrest Warrants
10 pulls (one multi)	10	1,600
50% chance of a top-rarity drop	35	5,600
90% chance of a top-rarity drop	55	8,800
Hard pity (80) from zero	80	12,800

Chance of a top-rarity drop by number of pulls in Path to Nowhere

Pulls from zero pity	Cumulative chance	Arrest Warrants
10	18%	1,600
20	33%	3,200
30	45%	4,800
40	55%	6,400
50Soft pity	66%	8,000
60	100%	9,600
70	100%	11,200
80Hard pity	100%	12,800

Computed from the Standard banner's exact rate table: 2.0% base rate, soft pity from pull 50, hard pity at 80. Every row assumes you start at pity 0; type your real pity in the calculator to shift the curve.

How many pulls do you need in Path to Nowhere? →Path to Nowhere free pulls →How to get Arrest Warrants in Path to Nowhere →