Umamusume: Pretty Derby Support Card Pity Calculator: Odds, Pity Thresholds and Guarantee

Hard pity: 200
Soft pity: None
Base rate: 3.0%
Cost per pull: 150 Carats
Rate-up guarantee: Spark at 200

This Umamusume: Pretty Derby pity calculator turns your pity counter into a real percentage. The Support Card banner guarantees a top-rarity drop by pull 200, with a flat 3.0% rate on every pull until the guarantee. The guaranteed drop comes from the whole top-rarity pool, so it is not necessarily the featured unit. Starting from zero pity, 10 pulls give you a 26% chance and you need about 23 pulls for a coin-flip 50%. Set your current pity and the pulls you have saved to see your own number. Umamusume pays out exchange points per pull; 200 points buy the featured card or trainee, but they turn into Clover points the moment the banner ends.

Pity calculator for:

Pity you have right now

0Soft pity: 200Hard pity: 200

Pulls you can spend10

= 1,500 Carats

Will you have enough by the next banner?

Type what you have, what you earn per week and when the banner ends. The planner turns it into pulls and into your real chance that day.

Currency you have now (Carats)

Currency you earn per week

Banner ends on

Pity you have now

0 weeks to go

Pulls you will have

Chance of the featured drop

Pulls needed for 90%

How the Umamusume: Pretty Derby Support Card pity system works

Counter. Every pull without a top-rarity drop adds 1 to your pity. The counter resets to 0 the moment you get one — it does not reset when the banner rotates.
Flat rate. Umamusume: Pretty Derby keeps the rate at 3.0% on every pull of this banner; nothing ramps up before the cap, so only the hard guarantee changes your odds.
Hard pity (200). If you reach pull 200 without a drop, that pull is forced to be top rarity. From zero that costs 30,000 Carats.
Pool guarantee. The forced drop is any top-rarity unit from the current pool. Budget for more than 200 pulls if you want one specific unit.
Spark / exchange. After 200 pulls on the banner you can trade for the exact unit you want, independent of luck.

How many pulls and Carats you need in Umamusume: Pretty Derby

Target	Pulls	Carats
10 pulls (one multi)	10	1,500
50% chance of a top-rarity drop	23	3,450
90% chance of a top-rarity drop	76	11,400
Hard pity (200) from zero	200	30,000
Spark / exchange	200	30,000

Chance of a top-rarity drop by number of pulls in Umamusume: Pretty Derby

Pulls from zero pity	Cumulative chance	Carats
20	46%	3,000
40	70%	6,000
60	84%	9,000
80	91%	12,000
100	95%	15,000
120	97%	18,000
140	99%	21,000
160	99%	24,000
180	100%	27,000
200Hard pity	100%	30,000

Computed from the Support Card banner's exact rate table: 3.0% base rate, hard pity at 200. Every row assumes you start at pity 0; type your real pity in the calculator to shift the curve.

How many pulls do you need in Umamusume: Pretty Derby? →Umamusume →How to get Carats in Umamusume: Pretty Derby →