Fire Emblem Heroes Hero Fest Pity Calculator: Odds, Pity Thresholds and Guarantee

Hard pity: 120
Soft pity: 1
Base rate: 5.0%
Cost per pull: 5 Orbs
Rate-up guarantee: Shared pool

This Fire Emblem Heroes pity calculator turns your pity counter into a real percentage. The Hero Fest banner guarantees a top-rarity drop by pull 120, with soft pity from pull 1 (the rate climbs from 5.0% to 5.1% on that pull and keeps rising). The guaranteed drop comes from the whole top-rarity pool, so it is not necessarily the featured unit. Starting from zero pity, 10 pulls give you a 42% chance and you need about 13 pulls for a coin-flip 50%. Set your current pity and the pulls you have saved to see your own number. FEH raises the 5★ rate by 0.25 points for every five summons without a 5★, and on New Heroes banners 40 summons let you spark any focus hero.

Pity calculator for:

Pity you have right now

0Soft pity: 1Hard pity: 120

Pulls you can spend10

= 50 Orbs

Will you have enough by the next banner?

Type what you have, what you earn per week and when the banner ends. The planner turns it into pulls and into your real chance that day.

Currency you have now (Orbs)

Currency you earn per week

Banner ends on

Pity you have now

0 weeks to go

Pulls you will have

Chance of the featured drop

Pulls needed for 90%

How the Fire Emblem Heroes Hero Fest pity system works

Counter. Every pull without a top-rarity drop adds 1 to your pity. The counter resets to 0 the moment you get one — it does not reset when the banner rotates.
Soft pity zone (pull 1 → 120). From pull 1 the per-pull rate jumps to about 5.1% and grows on each following pull. Most top-rarity drops in Fire Emblem Heroes land inside this window, which is why the average is far below the hard cap.
Hard pity (120). If you reach pull 120 without a drop, that pull is forced to be top rarity. From zero that costs 600 Orbs.
Pool guarantee. The forced drop is any top-rarity unit from the current pool. Budget for more than 120 pulls if you want one specific unit.

How many pulls and Orbs you need in Fire Emblem Heroes

Target	Pulls	Orbs
10 pulls (one multi)	10	50
50% chance of a top-rarity drop	13	65
90% chance of a top-rarity drop	38	190
Hard pity (120) from zero	120	600

Chance of a top-rarity drop by number of pulls in Fire Emblem Heroes

Pulls from zero pity	Cumulative chance	Orbs
1Soft pity	5%	5
10	42%	50
20	68%	100
30	83%	150
40	92%	200
50	96%	250
60	98%	300
70	99%	350
80	100%	400
90	100%	450
100	100%	500
110	100%	550
120Hard pity	100%	600

Computed from the Hero Fest banner's exact rate table: 5.0% base rate, soft pity from pull 1, hard pity at 120. Every row assumes you start at pity 0; type your real pity in the calculator to shift the curve.

How many pulls do you need in Fire Emblem Heroes? →Fire Emblem Heroes free pulls →How to get Orbs in Fire Emblem Heroes →